Six Higher Education Mega Trends
What They Mean for the Distance Learning - Continued
Mega trend #5: "Sticker shock" and changing societal priorities will bring decreasing public support for higher education.
A 2003 report prepared by the House Committee on Education and the Workforce found that "parents and students are losing patience with college "sticker shock" and are frustrated at a lack of accountability from college officials about rising costs." In 2002-2003, the report says, 38 states either increased higher education appropriations or held them at last year's levels, yet tuition at public four-year universities increased in all 50 states - putting the national average for tuition at more than $4,000 a year, a 9.6% increase over last year. The report concludes, "parents and students simply cannot keep up with the sky rocketing cost of college tuition."
How do colleges get away with charging more? "There's no market constraint to keep them from raising tuition," says Ronald Ehrenberg, Director of the Cornell Higher Education Research Institute. People keep knocking on their doors. The federal government always comes to their aid by matching the increased tuition rates with increased levels of financial aid.
Average tuition costs rose at nearly five times the rate of family income from 1991 to 2001. During this same period, federal financial aid for students tried to keep pace by increasing by a factor of 12.
Median Family Income +16% +8%
Tuition: Private 4-Year Institutions +62% +37%
Tuition: Public 4-Year Institutions +58% +38%
% of Financial Aid per Full-Time Student +8% +96%
Strict cost controls and decreased supplemental financing will steadily take hold as municipalities divert federal, state and local funds away from education to other social crises such as health care and the aged. Irving Buchen, a business and education consultant, predicts that education has, at most, only another 10 or 15 years as the favored focus of funding and attention.
Eventually federal legislation to deal with rising college costs will be enacted to place stringent controls on tuition rates. It is likely that the Higher Education Act, which governs federal student financial aid programs, will be reauthorized.
What it means to distance learners:
Two-thirds of college students attend public four-year colleges, paying an average of $3,226 per year. For private universities, the price tag is about five times higher. As local, state and federal funds are diverted to other social priorities, federal aid will decline, despite rising tuition. Competition grows fiercer every year for most colleges, making the option of attending distance learning, corporate and vocational schools that much more appealing.
Mega trend #6: The End of a Monopoly and the Balkanization of higher education.
Corporate and entrepreneurial America is beginning to see opportunities for big profits in higher education. Dr. Carol Twigg, an expert in the effective application of information technology in higher education, has described the "disaggregation" of education, some thing made possible by the capabilities of information technology. Pieces of higher education are being targeted by new providers of products and services as the source of new businesses under entirely new, flexible arrangements according to Dr. Twigg. The dispersion of higher education's currently integrated products and services will be like pulling threads one-by-one from a piece of fabric. At first, there is little noticeable change, but as time goes on, the materials begins to unravel." As examples, Dr. Twigg lists the bookstore, testing, remedial education, the bookstore, tutorial and library services as well as specialized masters degrees.
Of all the major enterprises in America, public education is the only one that has changed little in the past 50 years. Its medieval, monopolistic structure, top down management style and basic classroom delivery of instruction has been largely unaffected by the arrival of global networks, exploding online learning markets, and the arrival of older, more market savvy, students.
Industry observers draw a parallel between education today and health care 25 years ago. At the time, health care was mostly stuck in the public and voluntary sectors. It has since become a multi billion-dollar, largely private industry. Investors are prophesizing a similar fate for the education industry. It looks as if the time for true transformation is finally arriving for higher education.
What it means for distance learners:
It is hard to describe what the balkanization of American higher education will bring. Of course an open market will bring better customer service, faster completion of degrees and more consistent curriculum quality. But what will the new transformation look like? Dr Twigg notes that "twenty years ago, when the old AT&T was broken up, people expected new smaller, similar communications structures. Instead, hundreds of communications products and services have replaced the monolithic structures of the past, offered by companies that didn't exist when the Internet was conceived."
The challenge for higher education is to predict and prepare for the profound historical effects a boom-time e-learning marketplace, the coming "Oklahoma land rush" of educational entrepreneurs, as well as for the havoc a billion connected computers will bring to their campuses. These new realities are being compounded even further by the arrival, in huge numbers, of career and, much more consumer oriented, older working students. The hallowed halls of academe now have no choice. They must now become leaner, faster, more innovative, more streamlined and more market oriented. How well campuses succeed in doing this will determine whether they remain competitive in the future, or simply cease to exist.
<< Back
|
