Six Higher Education Mega Trends
What They Mean for the Distance Learning
Education, it is commonly said, is the business of the future. But the widening gap between that assertion and fact is perhaps not as much a function of a laggard educational enterprise as of an external world that threatens to make the formal education system ever more extinct. What now faces education is a series of historically significant new technological and demographic realities, unprecedented in their potential importance, which may permanently put traditional education at a disadvantage.
How traditional institutions of higher education approach the changes described below may determine whether they remain competitive in the future, or if they will cease to exist.
Mega Trend #1: On the ground and in the air, the links are being put in place to create global networks that will connect students, companies and nations.
Almost all information technology industry leaders agree that we are in the midst of a fundamental switch towards anywhere, any time, network-based, transparent computing. John Chambers, Cisco's chief executive, describes the coming network as an "all-in-one data, voice and video network" that will "get everything connected to everything.
High bandwidth, wireless Internet connections, voice-recognition technology have already made it child's play to communicate with computers via verbal commands. These "all-in-one" networks will make sending and receiving class interactions, course materials and events, in any medium, as simple as it is now to talk on a wireless phone.
As technology becomes ever more advanced, it will also become invisible. Futurist visions of 2010 portray a world where technology has grown virtually imperceptible. No PC, no tangle of lines, no speakers will sit on your desk. Technology will become ever more powerful, subtle, silent, and alert.
Ray Kurzweil, software pioneer, high-tech developer and visionary, talks of a future communicating in virtual reality. According to Kurzweil, by 2010, we will have full visual and auditory virtual reality to simulate face-to-face encounters with students on the other side of town or the other side of the world.
What it means to distance learners:
There is widespread agreement that these next generation networks, whether terrestrial or satellite, wired or wireless, will offer instant, extremely rich, personal and non-obtrusive, broadband access to individuals, to companies, and especially to students, at any time and place. These new networks, and the rich, highly interactive courses they will routinely deliver will be cheaper, more convenient and more fun than the same courses taken on campus.
Mega Trend #2: Distance education enrollments are soaring.
Eduventures, a Boston based educational research and advisory firm, estimates that enrollments for fully online degree programs in the distance learning market are expanding at a rate of 40-percent annually. The Distance Education and Training Council sets the annual growth rate 30 percent.
E-learning enrollments are soaring throughout the distance learning marketplace. National University had 480 students enrolled in its online classes in 1999. This year almost 14,000 students participated in classes from their homes or offices. The University of Phoenix, the largest private university in the U.S. with 145,000 students, 63,500 of whom are online students, realized an 80 percent growth between 2001 and 2002.
What it means for distance learners:
Growing markets, increased competition and increased consumer options will make it easier for today's adult learners to find the two major features they are looking for - convenience and speed. Those with jobs and possibly families want to be able to schedule classes at a time convenient for them. A four-year degree takes too long and is no longer practical. By graduation, a four-year curriculum could be out of date.
It is a fact of life that exploding new markets always attract a fair share of shysters and crooks. It is estimated that there are over 500 "diploma mills" out there. Check if they are accredited, you say? Bear's Guide to Getting an Online Degree lists over 99 non-existent accrediting agencies which are commonly referred to by these 500 bogus schools. Prospective students must be very wary before enrolling in online schools.
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